Disruption dates represent our editorial projection of when a company's
core revenue model becomes economically unviable due to AI
competition — not when the company ceases to exist. We model four factors:
AI replaceability (what % of core workflows AI executes autonomously),
switching friction (contractual lock-in, integration depth),
competitive velocity (how fast AI-native alternatives are scaling),
and company adaptation rate (how fast incumbents are cannibalizing
their own revenue with AI products).
A company rated CRITICAL has >85% replaceability and slow
adaptation. MEDIUM companies have complexity moats that buy them
years — but not immunity.
- Goldman Sachs: "AI Risk Spreads as Software Sector Enters Bear Market" (Feb 2026)
- Gartner: "40% of Enterprise Apps Will Feature AI Agents by 2026" (Aug 2025)
- McKinsey: "The State of AI" — $2.6T–$4.4T value projection (2025)
- Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 — 84% developer AI adoption
- Stanford/REST: "AI vs Gen Z: How AI Changed Junior Developer Career Paths" (2025)
- Second Talent: "Vibe Coding Statistics & Trends 2026" — $4.7B market
- Goldman Sachs Broad Software Basket — 30% decline from highs (Feb 2026)
- Y Combinator W2025 batch survey — 21% startups with 91%+ AI codebases